Hi Henry, (01)
I know. But they are connected people; people who pass ideas around.
(At least, that was my hypothesis at the time of posting.) (02)
Peter (03)
Henry K van Eyken wrote:
> Peter.
>
> The people in this group are not the ones to apply the kind of solutions
> you suggest. They are technical people best suited to try to further the
> tool system aspect of Doug Engelbart's Augment. Once on that track they
> can draw the world's attention to what they are accomplishing here and
> say: "Hey we have here what you need to for all your areas of expertise
> and all your info to come together to bear on solving the problem."
>
> Please, bear in mind that throughout the Year 200 Colloquium "Unfinished
> Revolution II" the emphasis was on getting technically capable people to
> work together on that Augment tool problem. But all that came of it was
> reams of talk spread over four discussion forums.
>
> Henry
>
>
> On Mon, 2005-08-22 at 11:30 +0100, Peter P. Jones wrote:
>
>>Some ideas... few of them are new.
>>
>>Ditch gasoline.
>>Design team 'bicycars' (multiperson-powered rickshaws) or
>>dual-air-engine solar-powered/handcrank-refuelling vehicles.
>>Save the trees and plant more plants with appropriate respiratory cycles.
>>Eat less beef ( => more rainforest trees, less cattle flatulence), or
>>grow it in the lab. Maybe farm molluscs instead.
>>Design more efficient heating, lighting and cooking systems. (Ambjorn
>>Naeve's double curve solar collector plus some fibreoptics or mirror
>>technologies could sort this - heat the bottom of pans with sunlight.)
>>Get large-scale desalination plants working (Research local evaporation
>>system technology - sunlight powered, as above? - existing water supply
>>system could supply seawater to local area or homes that is then
>>evaporated for specific needs).
>>Get solar-powered telecoms and PCs (footcranked clockwork PCs?).
>>Resurrect ancient refrigeration and preservation technologies.
>>Research simple hydroponics, instead of air-freight shipping of
>>perishables (stick live sea fish in lorries full of seawater to
>>transport -see seawater supplies above).
>>Farm seaweeds.
>>Go local with wind power.
>>Sort out the international economics.
>>
>>--
>>Peter
>>
>>John Sechrest wrote:
>>
>>>Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca> writes:
>>>
>>> % John.
>>>
>>> % I can't think of anything individuals or even groups of individuals can
>>> % do about it. What they can do is propose solutions. Proposed solutions
>>> % may turn out to be high-risk solutions. Part of the high risks may come
>>> % from insufficient insight into complex extra-anthropological
>>> % interactions.
>>>
>>>
>>>Certainly one of the things that is going to go on is that the world
>>>will change. Either the world will be much hotter than it is,
>>>or it will be much colder than it is. And it will likely happen
>>>in less than 50 years and perhaps as few as twenty, given what
>>>I read in the note. Balancing that with Millenium 2000 by
>>>Gerald OBarney, suggests that most of the critial resources
>>>are going to come to a turning point in the next 20-50 years,
>>>without the release of methane from siberia.
>>>
>>>Given that the world is going to change, it means that economics will
>>>shift. Food supplies will shift. Water availability will shift.
>>>
>>>Given those changes, and our ability (or lack there of) to understand
>>>the complex process, what can the YAK group bring to the discussion
>>>that will move things forward.
>>>
>>>Let's not fall into the Yak habit of saying my XYZ tool will lead the
>>>way to understanding the complexity of the issue, but instead let's
>>>get serious about exactly what issues needs to be understood, who
>>>needs to understand them and map something out. If there is a group
>>>that understands that mapping, this is the group.
>>>
>>>So.... How do you map out the issues enough to help the process?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> % Whatever solutions are advocated need be judged by non-experts with the
>>> % clout to put selected solution into effect. Disagreements between global
>>> % and regional political entities, disagreements between advocacy and
>>> % lobby groups, disagreements among electorates may, at best, lead to
>>> % selecting of an optimal solution, but time-frame is increasingly a
>>> % problem. (Notice that the report about release of methane from Siberian
>>> % melts speaks of an IRREVERSIBLE situation.)
>>>
>>> I do not believe at this point that a long term political discussion
>>> is of any value. If the report is correct (and it needs validating),
>>> then the consequences are huge. And they are immediate (geologically
>>> speaking). Most of us will get to live thru the beginning of it.
>>>
>>> Question 1: Is it true that it said that the effect of the
>>> methane on the critical part of the atmosphere
>>> will happen over a ten (10) year period.
>>>
>>> Question 2: They did not say, but is it true that they believe
>>> that the release of the methane will happen over
>>> the next 10 years?
>>>
>>>
>>> Question 3: If the temperature ends up being 10 degrees warmer
>>> world wide, what are the specific consequences?
>>>
>>> Who has a model that will show it?
>>> Who has done research on this?
>>> How does this issue get mapped out?
>>>
>>> (food systems? Water systems? economic systems?
>>> storm damage? who has modeled what?)
>>>
>>>
>>> Question 4: There is some thought that a flush of fresh water into
>>> the oceans will lead to an alteration of the
>>> gulf current. And that this will cool off northern
>>> europe. And the northern hemisphere.
>>>
>>> There is also a thought that it could trigger
>>> rapid cooling of the planet. if the problem is
>>> that we have an ice age, how can there be a
>>> response that is effective?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> % Maybe we are lucky this time and slip through a looming disaster or we
>>> % will be allowed some time still to prepare for it. But the real
>>> % possibility remains that other, maybe worse disasters are still in the
>>> % coming.
>>>
>>> Yes. Let's assume that it is a done deal. We have reached the tipping point
>>> and we are going to have a substantial climate shift in the next 20-50
>years.
>>> Real Live poof the world is different and will never be the same again
>>> change.
>>>
>>> What can be done to understand and adapt to the new shape of the world
>>> that maximizes the benefit to everyone?
>>>
>>>
>>> % What we might do (read: what we bloody well better do on whatever
>>> % borrowed time we have!) is work on the "human system." This involves a
>>> % very belated high-speed development of digital augmentation of the human
>>> % intellect so as to permit fastest possible public education so as to
>>> % facilitate an understanding of potential global calamities and to
>>> % facilitate a process for "democratic" agreement among the Earth's
>>> % population. That high-speed development will call for the setting aside
>>> % of a body of private interests (such as the private control of important
>>> % technologies).
>>>
>>> I am not clear that the assumption of democratic agreement
>>> is one that will be put into place. I see that martial law
>>> and dictitorial actions are far more likely. In time of crisis
>>> democracy gets shoved to the side.
>>>
>>> What has to happen in the next 5 years so that reason and
>>> democratic values can hold a place in the conversation?
>>>
>>> If what is being said is true, then we have one shot
>>> at getting things deployed. What needs to be deployed and
>>> who needs to do it.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> % I have no high hopes, but, then again, it is impossible to begin the
>>> % process 30 years ago.
>>>
>>> Yes. That option is unavailable.
>>>
>>> Now what.
>>>
>>> % The people on this list might well begin by doing a critical reading of
>>> % Doug Engelbart's writings. May I suggest items 29 and 3 on page
>>> % http://www.bootstrap.org/institute/bibliography.html
>>>
>>> Yes, but these are awfully general and abstract writings.
>>> We know there are general and abstract things we can do.
>>>
>>> What concrete , narrow focused things needs to be done
>>> that will be meaningful?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> % And for helping along a better directed democratization of public
>>> % decision-making allow me to humbly suggest also a careful reading of
>>> % http://www.fleabyte.org/Flb-future.html , which discusses a public
>>> % application of Doug's technological proposals.
>>>
>>>
>>> If the article is true and the extrapolations are true, then
>>> we are in for a serious crisis. Not only a crisis of
>>> weather , food, water etc. But a fundamental political crisis.
>>>
>>> Our current politics is incapable of coming to grips with the
>>> reality of the climate shift issue. And if we have already
>>> passed the tipping point, then it will be a question of how
>>> to rapidly organize and rapidly deploy. This is not a large scale
>>> democratic process. It will be dictitorial, if it is anything at all.
>>>
>>> Only in the small group will democratic operations still survive
>>> (perhaps).
>>>
>>> What can local communities do that will enable them to survive this
>>> transformation?
>>>
>>> Or will we see massive population shift as a way to cope with the
>>> changes?
>>>
>>>
>>> % But, as always, I am open to better ideas.
>>>
>>> Politics will be far less interesting than eating will be to
>>> most people very quickly after this shift.
>>>
>>> So what knowlege can be shared and how can it be shared that will
>>> enable more people to survive the climate shift?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>-----
>>>John Sechrest . Helping people use
>>> . computers and the Internet
>>> . more effectively
>>> .
>>> . Internet: sechrest@peak.org
>>> .
>>> . http://www.peak.org/~sechrest
>>>
>> (04)
--
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