THANKS, Jack. YOU SAID IT. (01)
Henry (02)
On Mon, 2005-08-22 at 08:29 -0700, Jack Park wrote:
<snip>
> Where, then, does the yak community fit in? I think it is this. Build
> those tools which will aid and abet the fabrication of better models.
> If the future of us and our planet depends on accurate predictions
> coupled with appropriate behavioral responses to those predictions,
> then the least we can do is to focus as much as we can on the
> fabrication of tools which augment relational modeling. That includes
> data collection and aggregation, modeling tools of all sorts, from
> numeric to symbolic, and it includes education of the masses on a
> scale not yet understood by those who continue to profess that the
> factory model of indoctrination (to be taxpayers, not thinkers) is the
> way forward. I claim it is not the way forward.
>
> If we are to mount some sort of charge, not unlike the tipping point
> generator that is the encampment near the Bush ranch, then we must, as
> some would say, seize the moment and take on the really tall issues we
> can: the fabrication of tools for the augmentation of human
> capabilities by way of education and modeling.
>
> Jack
>
> On 8/22/05, John Sechrest <sechrest@jas.peak.org> wrote:
> >
> >
> > These are the big picture abstract view of things. And part of the
> > "party line" of how things "should be".
> >
> > Let's back up a step. Given that the world will be 10 degress C
> > hotter, what will happen?
> >
> > Because that thing will happen, you will have what problem?
> >
> > Given that problem in 20 years, what needs to be done now, so
> > that that problem can be solved in a way that is "best".
> >
> >
> > Clearly, fossil fuel systems will not be a stable source from
> > oil after 50 years, as we are understanding it at this point.
> > But tar sands and coal will provide 300 years of more fuel if
> > we stop caring about pollution. And given a choice between
> > eating or pollution, we seem to always pick eating.
> >
> > So, it my mind, with the article that we read, all the "nice rules"
> > fall away. We are no longer in the land of what we "should do", but
> > we are in the land of what we "have to do" in order to survive.
> >
> > And the Rules change.
> >
> >
> > Most of what peter lists here are in the land of should do.
> > And they are mostly aimed at social changes.
> >
> > Since governments are not going to make changes in enough time to be
> > helpful, the small group is the one that can make changes fast enough.
> >
> > So what should you do?
> > or what should your family do?
> > or what should your neighborhood do?
> > Or what should your linux users group do that will lead to a
> > better future for the most people?
> >
> > So, we know we will have hotter climate. This will change how
> > water flows in the system. This will change what plants can grow
> > and where plants can grow. This will destroy fisheries.
> > This means that there will be food shortages.
> >
> > And we already know there will be energy problems.
> >
> > So the key is to be in a place that can grow food locally?
> > But we don't know if the climate will be stable, so we don't
> > know where food can be grown locally.
> >
> > So we need to find ways for small groups of people to grow
> > food in a way that is stable locally, and perhaps is portable.
> > And which can work independent of the climate.
> >
> > This leads to the idea of Aquaponics. Growing fish and plants
> > together in a system to create both plant material and fish to eat.
> >
> > Does anyone know how to grow enough food via aquaponics for a house
> > hold?
> >
> >
> > Does this path that I outlined about make sense?
> >
> > Does it fit into any of the tools that people are holding in
> > there hands now that will enable the computerized information
> > representation process to make it better than what we have now?
> >
> > How can yak help with this?
> >
> >
> > What would it take to make a detailed list of 20 choices that people
> > need to make, with the research references and the proper materials
> > and the writing into recipes so that people could adopt it now.
> >
> > Given that the natives of Alaska are about to have a very hard
> > time getting enough food. And that the folks in sub sahara africa
> > seem to be having bursts of famine, the need for answers is
> > not an abstract question, but a specific one.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > "Peter P. Jones" <ppj@concept67.net> writes:
> >
> > % Some ideas... few of them are new.
> > %
> > % Ditch gasoline.
> > % Design team 'bicycars' (multiperson-powered rickshaws) or
> > % dual-air-engine solar-powered/handcrank-refuelling vehicles.
> > % Save the trees and plant more plants with appropriate respiratory cycles.
> > % Eat less beef ( => more rainforest trees, less cattle flatulence), or
> > % grow it in the lab. Maybe farm molluscs instead.
> > % Design more efficient heating, lighting and cooking systems. (Ambjorn
> > % Naeve's double curve solar collector plus some fibreoptics or mirror
> > % technologies could sort this - heat the bottom of pans with sunlight.)
> > % Get large-scale desalination plants working (Research local evaporation
> > % system technology - sunlight powered, as above? - existing water supply
> > % system could supply seawater to local area or homes that is then
> > % evaporated for specific needs).
> > % Get solar-powered telecoms and PCs (footcranked clockwork PCs?).
> > % Resurrect ancient refrigeration and preservation technologies.
> > % Research simple hydroponics, instead of air-freight shipping of
> > % perishables (stick live sea fish in lorries full of seawater to
> > % transport -see seawater supplies above).
> > % Farm seaweeds.
> > % Go local with wind power.
> > % Sort out the international economics.
> > %
> > % --
> > % Peter
> > %
> > % John Sechrest wrote:
> > % > Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca> writes:
> > % >
> > % > % John.
> > % >
> > % > % I can't think of anything individuals or even groups of individuals
>can
> > % > % do about it. What they can do is propose solutions. Proposed
>solutions
> > % > % may turn out to be high-risk solutions. Part of the high risks may
>come
> > % > % from insufficient insight into complex extra-anthropological
> > % > % interactions.
> > % >
> > >
> > % > Certainly one of the things that is going to go on is that the world
> > % > will change. Either the world will be much hotter than it is,
> > % > or it will be much colder than it is. And it will likely happen
> > % > in less than 50 years and perhaps as few as twenty, given what
> > % > I read in the note. Balancing that with Millenium 2000 by
> > % > Gerald OBarney, suggests that most of the critial resources
> > % > are going to come to a turning point in the next 20-50 years,
> > % > without the release of methane from siberia.
> > % >
> > % > Given that the world is going to change, it means that economics will
> > % > shift. Food supplies will shift. Water availability will shift.
> > % >
> > % > Given those changes, and our ability (or lack there of) to understand
> > % > the complex process, what can the YAK group bring to the discussion
> > % > that will move things forward.
> > % >
> > % > Let's not fall into the Yak habit of saying my XYZ tool will lead the
> > % > way to understanding the complexity of the issue, but instead let's
> > % > get serious about exactly what issues needs to be understood, who
> > % > needs to understand them and map something out. If there is a group
> > % > that understands that mapping, this is the group.
> > % >
> > % > So.... How do you map out the issues enough to help the process?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > % Whatever solutions are advocated need be judged by non-experts with
>the
> > % > % clout to put selected solution into effect. Disagreements between
>global
> > % > % and regional political entities, disagreements between advocacy and
> > % > % lobby groups, disagreements among electorates may, at best, lead to
> > % > % selecting of an optimal solution, but time-frame is increasingly a
> > % > % problem. (Notice that the report about release of methane from
>Siberian
> > % > % melts speaks of an IRREVERSIBLE situation.)
> > % >
> > % > I do not believe at this point that a long term political discussion
> > % > is of any value. If the report is correct (and it needs validating),
> > % > then the consequences are huge. And they are immediate (geologically
> > % > speaking). Most of us will get to live thru the beginning of it.
> > % >
> > % > Question 1: Is it true that it said that the effect of the
> > % > methane on the critical part of the atmosphere
> > % > will happen over a ten (10) year period.
> > % >
> > % > Question 2: They did not say, but is it true that they believe
> > % > that the release of the methane will happen over
> > % > the next 10 years?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > Question 3: If the temperature ends up being 10 degrees warmer
> > % > world wide, what are the specific consequences?
> > % >
> > % > Who has a model that will show it?
> > % > Who has done research on this?
> > % > How does this issue get mapped out?
> > % >
> > % > (food systems? Water systems? economic systems?
> > % > storm damage? who has modeled what?)
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > Question 4: There is some thought that a flush of fresh water into
> > % > the oceans will lead to an alteration of the
> > % > gulf current. And that this will cool off northern
> > % > europe. And the northern hemisphere.
> > % >
> > % > There is also a thought that it could trigger
> > % > rapid cooling of the planet. if the problem is
> > % > that we have an ice age, how can there be a
> > % > response that is effective?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > % Maybe we are lucky this time and slip through a looming disaster or
>we
> > % > % will be allowed some time still to prepare for it. But the real
> > % > % possibility remains that other, maybe worse disasters are still in
>the
> > % > % coming.
> > % >
> > % > Yes. Let's assume that it is a done deal. We have reached the
>tipping point
> > % > and we are going to have a substantial climate shift in the next
>20-50 years.
> > % > Real Live poof the world is different and will never be the same again
> > % > change.
> > % >
> > % > What can be done to understand and adapt to the new shape of the world
> > % > that maximizes the benefit to everyone?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > % What we might do (read: what we bloody well better do on whatever
> > % > % borrowed time we have!) is work on the "human system." This
>involves a
> > % > % very belated high-speed development of digital augmentation of the
>human
> > % > % intellect so as to permit fastest possible public education so as to
> > % > % facilitate an understanding of potential global calamities and to
> > % > % facilitate a process for "democratic" agreement among the Earth's
> > % > % population. That high-speed development will call for the setting
>aside
> > % > % of a body of private interests (such as the private control of
>important
> > % > % technologies).
> > % >
> > % > I am not clear that the assumption of democratic agreement
> > % > is one that will be put into place. I see that martial law
> > % > and dictitorial actions are far more likely. In time of crisis
> > % > democracy gets shoved to the side.
> > % >
> > % > What has to happen in the next 5 years so that reason and
> > % > democratic values can hold a place in the conversation?
> > % >
> > % > If what is being said is true, then we have one shot
> > % > at getting things deployed. What needs to be deployed and
> > % > who needs to do it.
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > % I have no high hopes, but, then again, it is impossible to begin the
> > % > % process 30 years ago.
> > % >
> > % > Yes. That option is unavailable.
> > % >
> > % > Now what.
> > % >
> > % > % The people on this list might well begin by doing a critical
>reading of
> > % > % Doug Engelbart's writings. May I suggest items 29 and 3 on page
> > % > % http://www.bootstrap.org/institute/bibliography.html
> > % >
> > % > Yes, but these are awfully general and abstract writings.
> > % > We know there are general and abstract things we can do.
> > % >
> > % > What concrete , narrow focused things needs to be done
> > % > that will be meaningful?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > % And for helping along a better directed democratization of public
> > % > % decision-making allow me to humbly suggest also a careful reading of
> > % > % http://www.fleabyte.org/Flb-future.html , which discusses a public
> > % > % application of Doug's technological proposals.
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > If the article is true and the extrapolations are true, then
> > % > we are in for a serious crisis. Not only a crisis of
> > % > weather , food, water etc. But a fundamental political crisis.
> > % >
> > % > Our current politics is incapable of coming to grips with the
> > % > reality of the climate shift issue. And if we have already
> > % > passed the tipping point, then it will be a question of how
> > % > to rapidly organize and rapidly deploy. This is not a large scale
> > % > democratic process. It will be dictitorial, if it is anything at all.
> > % >
> > % > Only in the small group will democratic operations still survive
> > % > (perhaps).
> > % >
> > % > What can local communities do that will enable them to survive this
> > % > transformation?
> > % >
> > % > Or will we see massive population shift as a way to cope with the
> > % > changes?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > % But, as always, I am open to better ideas.
> > % >
> > % > Politics will be far less interesting than eating will be to
> > % > most people very quickly after this shift.
> > % >
> > % > So what knowlege can be shared and how can it be shared that will
> > % > enable more people to survive the climate shift?
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % >
> > % > -----
> > % > John Sechrest . Helping people use
> > % > . computers and the Internet
> > % > . more effectively
> > % > .
> > % > . Internet: sechrest@peak.org
> > % > .
> > % > .
>http://www.peak.org/~sechrest
> > % >
> > %
> > % --
> > % This message is archived at:
> > %
> > %
>http://collab.blueoxen.net/forums/cgi-bin/mesg.cgi?a=yak&i=4309A952.7060308@concept67.net
> > %
> >
> > -----
> > John Sechrest . Helping people use
> > . computers and the Internet
> > . more effectively
> > .
> > . Internet: sechrest@peak.org
> > .
> > .
>http://www.peak.org/~sechrest
> >
> > --
> > This message is archived at:
> >
> >
>http://collab.blueoxen.net/forums/cgi-bin/mesg.cgi?a=yak&i=E1E7DXA-00021p-34@jas.peak.org
> >
> >
>
--
Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca> (03)
--
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