Consider this post:
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/003338.html (01)
Jack (02)
On 8/22/05, Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca> wrote:
> John.
>
> Going directly to your final comment/question: Doug Engelbart does not
> offer an ultimate solution to the problem, but he does offer a
> super-duper means of tackling urgent problems. He offers that tool.
>
> I am not competent to advocate any direct solution. What I am saying is
> that this forum is a group of technical people who ought to be capable
> of assessing and furthering the completion of that tool. Then, a.s.a.p.,
> it can be put to use by experts within specific fields and between
> fields of competence to do the actual tackling of the problem.
>
> Did I not suggest that a symposium be held among people from different
> areas so as to get an idea as to how to bring varied expertise together?
>
> I also believe that while all this is going on work ought be done on
> developing a global civics (& global ethics) so as to create a receptive
> humanity for understanding the problem, understanding (a surface
> understanding at least) of technologies that may be brought to bear on
> the problem, an understanding of the evaluating and decision-making
> processes involved.
>
> What else can I say then pointing out that fractional temperature
> changes have BIG effects on Earth's biological systems, etc.
>
> Henry
>
>
>
> On Sun, 2005-08-21 at 21:58 -0700, John Sechrest wrote:
> >
> > Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca> writes:
> >
> > % John.
> >
> > % I can't think of anything individuals or even groups of individuals can
> > % do about it. What they can do is propose solutions. Proposed solutions
> > % may turn out to be high-risk solutions. Part of the high risks may come
> > % from insufficient insight into complex extra-anthropological
> > % interactions.
> >
> >
> > Certainly one of the things that is going to go on is that the world
> > will change. Either the world will be much hotter than it is,
> > or it will be much colder than it is. And it will likely happen
> > in less than 50 years and perhaps as few as twenty, given what
> > I read in the note. Balancing that with Millenium 2000 by
> > Gerald OBarney, suggests that most of the critial resources
> > are going to come to a turning point in the next 20-50 years,
> > without the release of methane from siberia.
> >
> > Given that the world is going to change, it means that economics will
> > shift. Food supplies will shift. Water availability will shift.
> >
> > Given those changes, and our ability (or lack there of) to understand
> > the complex process, what can the YAK group bring to the discussion
> > that will move things forward.
> >
> > Let's not fall into the Yak habit of saying my XYZ tool will lead the
> > way to understanding the complexity of the issue, but instead let's
> > get serious about exactly what issues needs to be understood, who
> > needs to understand them and map something out. If there is a group
> > that understands that mapping, this is the group.
> >
> > So.... How do you map out the issues enough to help the process?
> >
> >
> >
> > % Whatever solutions are advocated need be judged by non-experts with the
> > % clout to put selected solution into effect. Disagreements between global
> > % and regional political entities, disagreements between advocacy and
> > % lobby groups, disagreements among electorates may, at best, lead to
> > % selecting of an optimal solution, but time-frame is increasingly a
> > % problem. (Notice that the report about release of methane from Siberian
> > % melts speaks of an IRREVERSIBLE situation.)
> >
> > I do not believe at this point that a long term political discussion
> > is of any value. If the report is correct (and it needs validating),
> > then the consequences are huge. And they are immediate (geologically
> > speaking). Most of us will get to live thru the beginning of it.
> >
> > Question 1: Is it true that it said that the effect of the
> > methane on the critical part of the atmosphere
> > will happen over a ten (10) year period.
> >
> > Question 2: They did not say, but is it true that they believe
> > that the release of the methane will happen over
> > the next 10 years?
> >
> >
> > Question 3: If the temperature ends up being 10 degrees warmer
> > world wide, what are the specific consequences?
> >
> > Who has a model that will show it?
> > Who has done research on this?
> > How does this issue get mapped out?
> >
> > (food systems? Water systems? economic systems?
> > storm damage? who has modeled what?)
> >
> >
> > Question 4: There is some thought that a flush of fresh water into
> > the oceans will lead to an alteration of the
> > gulf current. And that this will cool off northern
> > europe. And the northern hemisphere.
> >
> > There is also a thought that it could trigger
> > rapid cooling of the planet. if the problem is
> > that we have an ice age, how can there be a
> > response that is effective?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > % Maybe we are lucky this time and slip through a looming disaster or we
> > % will be allowed some time still to prepare for it. But the real
> > % possibility remains that other, maybe worse disasters are still in the
> > % coming.
> >
> > Yes. Let's assume that it is a done deal. We have reached the tipping
>point
> > and we are going to have a substantial climate shift in the next 20-50
>years.
> > Real Live poof the world is different and will never be the same again
> > change.
> >
> > What can be done to understand and adapt to the new shape of the world
> > that maximizes the benefit to everyone?
> >
> >
> > % What we might do (read: what we bloody well better do on whatever
> > % borrowed time we have!) is work on the "human system." This involves a
> > % very belated high-speed development of digital augmentation of the human
> > % intellect so as to permit fastest possible public education so as to
> > % facilitate an understanding of potential global calamities and to
> > % facilitate a process for "democratic" agreement among the Earth's
> > % population. That high-speed development will call for the setting aside
> > % of a body of private interests (such as the private control of important
> > % technologies).
> >
> > I am not clear that the assumption of democratic agreement
> > is one that will be put into place. I see that martial law
> > and dictitorial actions are far more likely. In time of crisis
> > democracy gets shoved to the side.
> >
> > What has to happen in the next 5 years so that reason and
> > democratic values can hold a place in the conversation?
> >
> > If what is being said is true, then we have one shot
> > at getting things deployed. What needs to be deployed and
> > who needs to do it.
> >
> >
> >
> > % I have no high hopes, but, then again, it is impossible to begin the
> > % process 30 years ago.
> >
> > Yes. That option is unavailable.
> >
> > Now what.
> >
> > % The people on this list might well begin by doing a critical reading of
> > % Doug Engelbart's writings. May I suggest items 29 and 3 on page
> > % http://www.bootstrap.org/institute/bibliography.html
> >
> > Yes, but these are awfully general and abstract writings.
> > We know there are general and abstract things we can do.
> >
> > What concrete , narrow focused things needs to be done
> > that will be meaningful?
> >
> >
> >
> > % And for helping along a better directed democratization of public
> > % decision-making allow me to humbly suggest also a careful reading of
> > % http://www.fleabyte.org/Flb-future.html , which discusses a public
> > % application of Doug's technological proposals.
> >
> >
> > If the article is true and the extrapolations are true, then
> > we are in for a serious crisis. Not only a crisis of
> > weather , food, water etc. But a fundamental political crisis.
> >
> > Our current politics is incapable of coming to grips with the
> > reality of the climate shift issue. And if we have already
> > passed the tipping point, then it will be a question of how
> > to rapidly organize and rapidly deploy. This is not a large scale
> > democratic process. It will be dictitorial, if it is anything at all.
> >
> > Only in the small group will democratic operations still survive
> > (perhaps).
> >
> > What can local communities do that will enable them to survive this
> > transformation?
> >
> > Or will we see massive population shift as a way to cope with the
> > changes?
> >
> >
> > % But, as always, I am open to better ideas.
> >
> > Politics will be far less interesting than eating will be to
> > most people very quickly after this shift.
> >
> > So what knowlege can be shared and how can it be shared that will
> > enable more people to survive the climate shift?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -----
> > John Sechrest . Helping people use
> > . computers and the Internet
> > . more effectively
> > .
> > . Internet: sechrest@peak.org
> > .
> > .
>http://www.peak.org/~sechrest
> >
> --
> Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca>
>
> --
> This message is archived at:
>
>
>http://collab.blueoxen.net/forums/cgi-bin/mesg.cgi?a=yak&i=1124725304.3113.11.camel@localhost.localdomain
>
> (03)
--
This message is archived at: (04)
http://collab.blueoxen.net/forums/cgi-bin/mesg.cgi?a=yak&iQ79aafa050822084734d0bcdf@mail.gmail.com (05)
|