Henry K van Eyken <vaneyken@sympatico.ca> writes: (01)
% John. (02)
% I can't think of anything individuals or even groups of individuals can
% do about it. What they can do is propose solutions. Proposed solutions
% may turn out to be high-risk solutions. Part of the high risks may come
% from insufficient insight into complex extra-anthropological
% interactions. (03)
Certainly one of the things that is going to go on is that the world
will change. Either the world will be much hotter than it is,
or it will be much colder than it is. And it will likely happen
in less than 50 years and perhaps as few as twenty, given what
I read in the note. Balancing that with Millenium 2000 by
Gerald OBarney, suggests that most of the critial resources
are going to come to a turning point in the next 20-50 years,
without the release of methane from siberia. (04)
Given that the world is going to change, it means that economics will
shift. Food supplies will shift. Water availability will shift. (05)
Given those changes, and our ability (or lack there of) to understand
the complex process, what can the YAK group bring to the discussion
that will move things forward. (06)
Let's not fall into the Yak habit of saying my XYZ tool will lead the
way to understanding the complexity of the issue, but instead let's
get serious about exactly what issues needs to be understood, who
needs to understand them and map something out. If there is a group
that understands that mapping, this is the group. (07)
So.... How do you map out the issues enough to help the process? (08)
% Whatever solutions are advocated need be judged by non-experts with the
% clout to put selected solution into effect. Disagreements between global
% and regional political entities, disagreements between advocacy and
% lobby groups, disagreements among electorates may, at best, lead to
% selecting of an optimal solution, but time-frame is increasingly a
% problem. (Notice that the report about release of methane from Siberian
% melts speaks of an IRREVERSIBLE situation.) (09)
I do not believe at this point that a long term political discussion
is of any value. If the report is correct (and it needs validating),
then the consequences are huge. And they are immediate (geologically
speaking). Most of us will get to live thru the beginning of it. (010)
Question 1: Is it true that it said that the effect of the
methane on the critical part of the atmosphere
will happen over a ten (10) year period. (011)
Question 2: They did not say, but is it true that they believe
that the release of the methane will happen over
the next 10 years? (012)
Question 3: If the temperature ends up being 10 degrees warmer
world wide, what are the specific consequences? (013)
Who has a model that will show it?
Who has done research on this?
How does this issue get mapped out? (014)
(food systems? Water systems? economic systems?
storm damage? who has modeled what?) (015)
Question 4: There is some thought that a flush of fresh water into
the oceans will lead to an alteration of the
gulf current. And that this will cool off northern
europe. And the northern hemisphere. (016)
There is also a thought that it could trigger
rapid cooling of the planet. if the problem is
that we have an ice age, how can there be a
response that is effective? (017)
% Maybe we are lucky this time and slip through a looming disaster or we
% will be allowed some time still to prepare for it. But the real
% possibility remains that other, maybe worse disasters are still in the
% coming. (018)
Yes. Let's assume that it is a done deal. We have reached the tipping point
and we are going to have a substantial climate shift in the next 20-50 years.
Real Live poof the world is different and will never be the same again
change. (019)
What can be done to understand and adapt to the new shape of the world
that maximizes the benefit to everyone? (020)
% What we might do (read: what we bloody well better do on whatever
% borrowed time we have!) is work on the "human system." This involves a
% very belated high-speed development of digital augmentation of the human
% intellect so as to permit fastest possible public education so as to
% facilitate an understanding of potential global calamities and to
% facilitate a process for "democratic" agreement among the Earth's
% population. That high-speed development will call for the setting aside
% of a body of private interests (such as the private control of important
% technologies). (021)
I am not clear that the assumption of democratic agreement
is one that will be put into place. I see that martial law
and dictitorial actions are far more likely. In time of crisis
democracy gets shoved to the side. (022)
What has to happen in the next 5 years so that reason and
democratic values can hold a place in the conversation? (023)
If what is being said is true, then we have one shot
at getting things deployed. What needs to be deployed and
who needs to do it. (024)
% I have no high hopes, but, then again, it is impossible to begin the
% process 30 years ago. (025)
Yes. That option is unavailable. (026)
Now what. (027)
% The people on this list might well begin by doing a critical reading of
% Doug Engelbart's writings. May I suggest items 29 and 3 on page
% http://www.bootstrap.org/institute/bibliography.html (028)
Yes, but these are awfully general and abstract writings.
We know there are general and abstract things we can do. (029)
What concrete , narrow focused things needs to be done
that will be meaningful? (030)
% And for helping along a better directed democratization of public
% decision-making allow me to humbly suggest also a careful reading of
% http://www.fleabyte.org/Flb-future.html , which discusses a public
% application of Doug's technological proposals. (031)
If the article is true and the extrapolations are true, then
we are in for a serious crisis. Not only a crisis of
weather , food, water etc. But a fundamental political crisis. (032)
Our current politics is incapable of coming to grips with the
reality of the climate shift issue. And if we have already
passed the tipping point, then it will be a question of how
to rapidly organize and rapidly deploy. This is not a large scale
democratic process. It will be dictitorial, if it is anything at all. (033)
Only in the small group will democratic operations still survive
(perhaps). (034)
What can local communities do that will enable them to survive this
transformation? (035)
Or will we see massive population shift as a way to cope with the
changes? (036)
% But, as always, I am open to better ideas. (037)
Politics will be far less interesting than eating will be to
most people very quickly after this shift. (038)
So what knowlege can be shared and how can it be shared that will
enable more people to survive the climate shift? (039)
-----
John Sechrest . Helping people use
. computers and the Internet
. more effectively
.
. Internet: sechrest@peak.org
.
. http://www.peak.org/~sechrest (040)
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